They Are Telling Us To Prepare For War – Do This Now: A Strategic Assessment of National Resilience and Household Contingency Planning

1. Executive Strategic Assessment

In the closing months of 2025, the United Kingdom stands at a precipice of strategic realignment not seen since the height of the Cold War. The geopolitical narrative, once dominated by post-globalization optimism, has been shattered by a convergence of hostile state intent, hybrid warfare, and systemic fragility. The directive from the highest echelons of the British state is clear, though often veiled in bureaucratic language: the era of assumed safety is over, and the era of “Whole Nation” resilience has begun.

This report serves as a comprehensive analysis of the signals emanating from Whitehall, the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), and the Ministry of Defence (MoD). It deconstructs the shift in official guidance—from the passive reliance on state protection to the active requirement for citizen preparedness. Furthermore, it translates high-level strategic warnings into granular, actionable logistics for the household. We are no longer discussing theoretical risks; we are addressing a threat landscape where the “export of chaos” is a deliberate instrument of statecraft, and where the resilience of the average household is the first line of national defence.

The analysis draws upon a myriad of sources, from the newly launched UK Government ‘Prepare’ campaign ¹ to the stark, maiden warnings of MI6’s first female chief, Blaise Metreweli.² It scrutinizes the National Security Strategy 2025 ³, the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Community Risk Register ⁴, and technical guidance on fallout protection.⁵ The synthesis of this intelligence reveals a singular, undeniable truth: the state is preparing for a conflict that will not be confined to a distant battlefield but will permeate the digital, physical, and cognitive spaces of the British homeland.

1.1 The Convergence of Warnings

The urgency of this report is driven by a distinct shift in the tone and content of official communications in late 2025. This is not business as usual. The signals are specific, coordinated, and alarming.

The Intelligence Signal:

In December 2025, Blaise Metreweli, the newly appointed “C” (Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service), utilized her maiden speech to deliver a stark assessment of the global security architecture. She explicitly characterized the Russian state’s behavior not merely as aggressive but as “exporting chaos” as a core feature of its international engagement.2 This “export of chaos” doctrine implies that disruptions to civil life—power outages, disinformation campaigns, supply chain sabotage—are not collateral damage but intended strategic effects designed to break societal will. Metreweli’s background in anthropology, psychology, and AI 7 suggests an intelligence agency deeply concerned with the cognitive and societal dimensions of warfare, warning that we are being contested “from sea to space, from the battlefield to the boardroom – and even our brains”.7

The Military Signal:

Simultaneously, Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, Chief of the Defence Staff, has declared the current security environment “more dangerous than I have known during my career”.2 His call for a “whole nation stepping up” is a tacit admission that the Armed Forces alone cannot hermetically seal the UK against modern threats. The military’s focus has shifted to “National Resilience,” emphasizing that a robust civil society is a prerequisite for military freedom of action. If the home front collapses under the strain of cyber-attacks or infrastructure failure, the military’s logistical tail is severed.

The Civil Signal:

The launch of the Prepare.campaign.gov.uk website 1 represents a pivot in government communication. It moves away from the “Keep Calm and Carry On” nostalgia toward a proactive stance, asking citizens directly: “If an emergency did happen in your area, how would you manage?”.1 This rhetorical question is backed by a Resilience Action Plan that frames resilience as “Deep Strength”—the ability of the community to absorb shock without state intervention.8

This report operationalizes these warnings. It moves beyond the why and deep into the how, providing the technical specifications for survival that the government pamphlets often omit.

2. The Geopolitical Threat Matrix: “Radical Uncertainty”

To prepare effectively, one must understand the nature of the threat. The National Security Strategy 2025 describes an era of “radical uncertainty”.³ This terminology is precise; it denotes a security environment where risks cannot be quantified using traditional probabilistic models because the rules of the game have changed.

2.1 The “Export of Chaos” Doctrine

The concept of “exporting chaos,” attributed to the Russian state by MI6 ², represents a shift from Clausewitzian warfare (politics by other means) to Gerasimov-style non-linear warfare.

• Targeting the Seams: The strategy exploits the seams between peace and war, and between civilian and military sectors. A cyber-attack on the National Grid is a hostile act, yet it may not trigger a NATO Article 5 response. This ambiguity paralyzes decision-making while inflicting real damage on the populace.
• The Weaponization of Information: Metreweli warns that information is “increasingly weaponized” to erode trust.⁷ In a crisis, this manifests as conflicting reports, fake evacuation orders, or panic-inducing rumors spread via social media bots. Preparation therefore requires an “Information Hygiene” strategy as robust as one’s water purification strategy.
• Enduring Contest: The assessment that this instability will continue “until Putin is forced to change his calculus” ⁶ suggests a protracted period of tension. Preparedness cannot be a temporary measure for a weekend storm; it must be a lifestyle adaptation for a decade of instability.

2.2 The Return of Conventional Deterrence

While hybrid threats dominate the “grey zone,” the conventional military threat has re-emerged. The Chief of the Defence Staff’s warning regarding the “increased probability of Russia invading a NATO country” ⁶ places the UK in a pre-war posture.

• Article 5 Implications: An invasion of a NATO ally (e.g., the Baltics or Poland) would draw the UK into a high-intensity conflict.
• Homeland Consequences: In such a scenario, the UK homeland would become a prime target for long-range precision strikes (conventional or nuclear) to disrupt logistics and breaking political will. The “Security at Home” pillar of the National Security Strategy ³ is a direct response to this, focusing on “making the UK a harder target.”

2.3 The “Whole Society” Approach

The government’s “Resilience Action Plan” ⁸ and the military’s “Whole Nation” concept ² effectively devolve responsibility. The state acknowledges it cannot be everywhere.

• The Resilience Gap: There exists a gap between the state’s capacity to manage a crisis and the citizen’s expectation of rescue. The “Prepare” campaign aims to close this gap by empowering citizens to look after themselves for the critical first 72 to 96 hours (or longer), freeing up emergency services for the most vulnerable.
• Community as Infrastructure: The strategy explicitly relies on “strong communities” as a form of “insurance”.⁸ The expectation is that neighbors will help neighbors, reducing the aggregate demand on central services.

3. The Local Risk Landscape: A Case Study of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough

Grand strategy manifests as local reality. To understand the specific risks facing a UK household, we must examine the Community Risk Register (CRR). The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Local Resilience Forum (CPLRF) provides a detailed, quantified assessment of the hazards most likely to impact residents in the East of England.⁴ This serves as a model for the entire UK, as the risks are largely transferable.

3.1 Quantified Risk Assessment

The CPLRF categorizes risks based on Impact and Likelihood, both graded on a scale of 1 to 5.

Table 1: High-Priority Risks from the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Community Risk Register (2025)

Risk Tier	Specific Hazard	Impact (1-5)	Likelihood (1-5)	Strategic Implication for Households
RED (Very High)	Failure of National Electricity Transmission	5	3	Total blackout scenarios requiring off-grid heating, cooking, and lighting for 5+ days.
RED (Very High)	Influenza-type Disease (Pandemic)	5	3	Requirement for isolation capability, medical stockpiles, and hygiene sanitation protocols.
RED (Very High)	Radiation Release (Overseas Nuclear)	4	4	Need for “Shelter-in-Place” capability (14+ days), sealed home environment, and iodine readiness.
RED (Very High)	Variable Rota Power Cuts	4	3	Intermittent energy requiring flexible daily routines and battery backup systems.
AMBER (High)	Systemic Financial Crisis	3	5	High likelihood of banking failures; necessity of cash reserves and tangible barter assets.
AMBER (High)	Fuel Shortages	3	4	Immobilization of personal vehicles; reliance on local resources and walking/cycling.
AMBER (High)	Public Disorder	3	4	Civil unrest risk requiring home security hardening and low-profile “grey man” behaviour.
AMBER (High)	Disruption to Telecoms	3	3	Loss of internet/phone; reliance on analogue radio (AM/FM/LW) and pre-arranged protocols.

Source: Data derived from CPLRF Community Risk Register.⁴

3.2 Analysis of Specific “Red” Risks

1. Grid Failure (Black Start):

The risk of a “Failure of the national electricity transmission system” carries the highest possible impact rating (5). This is distinct from local power cuts. It implies a systemic collapse where the grid must be rebooted from a “black start” condition, a process that can take days or weeks.

• Consequence: Loss of water pressure (pumps fail), loss of gas heating (boiler controllers fail), loss of sewage treatment, and loss of retail banking.
• Preparation: This single risk vector necessitates water storage, alternative heating, and cash reserves.

2. Radiation Release:

The inclusion of “Radiation release from overseas nuclear accident” with a likelihood of 4 is chillingly high. While it likely models accidents akin to Chernobyl or Zaporizhzhia, in the context of the 2025 geopolitical tensions, it also acts as a proxy for the fallout risk from tactical nuclear exchange in Europe.

• Consequence: A radioactive plume drifting over the UK.
• Preparation: The primary defense is “Sheltering in Place” (see Section 6). Evacuation is often more dangerous due to exposure in transit.

3. Pandemic & Biosecurity:

“Influenza-type disease” remains a top-tier threat. The 2020-2022 experience demonstrated the fragility of “just-in-time” supply chains. A future pandemic, perhaps weaponized or naturally emergent, could see more severe lockdowns or supply chain collapses.

• Preparation: Deep pantry storage (14-30 days) to avoid supermarkets during peak infection waves.

3.3 The “Amber” Warning: Financial & Social Fragility

The high likelihood (5/5) of a “Systemic Financial Crisis” and high likelihood (4/5) of “Public Disorder” suggests that the authorities view economic volatility and social unrest as almost inevitable.

• The Feedback Loop: A financial crisis leads to inflation and poverty, which fuels public disorder. Public disorder disrupts supply chains (fuel shortages), which exacerbates the economic crisis.
• Household Strategy: Resilience here is less about bunkers and more about financial liquidity (cash), physical security, and community networks.

4. The Collapse of Civil Defence Infrastructure

A critical component of the “Prepare” narrative is the implicit admission that the state no longer provides physical protection. The Cold War infrastructure of the United Kingdom has been dismantled.

4.1 The Myth of the Public Bunker

There is a persistent public belief that, in the event of war, government shelters will be opened. This is false.

• Historical Disposal: The network of Civil Defence Control Centres, Regional War Rooms (e.g., Reading, Brislington, Cambridge), and Royal Observer Corps (ROC) monitoring posts has been systematically decommissioned since the early 1990s.
• Current Status: Most former bunkers are now museums (e.g., Hack Green, York Cold War Bunker), private residences, data centers, or flooded ruins.¹⁰
• Government Continuity Only: The few remaining active sites are strictly for the continuity of government (CoG) and military command. There is no capacity to house the civilian population.

4.2 The “Shelter in Place” Doctrine

Consequently, UK Civil Defence policy is entirely predicated on the “Shelter in Place” strategy.

• The Logic: Evacuating cities creates traffic gridlock, leaving millions exposed in vehicles—the worst possible place to be during a blast or fallout event. Staying indoors offers immediate, albeit imperfect, protection.
• The Responsibility Transfer: By adopting this doctrine, the government transfers the responsibility for physical hardening from the Ministry of Defence to the homeowner. You are the architect of your own survival.

5. Infrastructure of Survival: Hardening the Home

Since the home is the primary refuge, it must be hardened against the specific threats of radiation, blast pressure, and civil unrest. We must revisit and update the principles of the Protect and Survive manuals ⁵ with modern engineering and tactical insights.

5.1 The “Inner Refuge”: Engineering Radiation Protection

In a nuclear scenario, the primary threat to those outside the immediate blast zone is Fallout—radioactive dust that settles on roofs and ground, emitting penetrating gamma radiation.

Principles of Protection (Distance & Mass):

Gamma radiation intensity drops with the square of the distance and is attenuated by mass. The goal is to put as much heavy material between you and the dust as possible.

Construction of the Fall-out Room:

1. Location: Choose a central room on the ground floor or a basement. The space under the stairs is often cited because it is structurally strong and surrounded by other rooms.⁵
2. The Core: Construct an “Inner Refuge” within this room. This is essentially a box or lean-to made of heavy furniture (tables) and reinforced.
3. Thickening: This is the most critical step. You must thicken the walls and roof of your refuge.
   • Materials: Books are excellent radiation shields due to their density. Bags of earth/sand from the garden, mattresses, and dismantled doors should be used to pile up against the sides and on top of the refuge.
   • Goal: You need a “Protection Factor” (PF) of at least 40, meaning you receive 1/40th of the outside radiation.

Living in the Refuge:

Households must be prepared to stay inside this cramped Inner Refuge for 48 hours (the period of highest radiation intensity) and inside the house for 14 days.5 This requires bringing all survival supplies (water, food, sanitation bucket, radio) into the refuge before the fallout arrives.

5.2 Blast Mitigation and the “Taping Windows” Myth

In a conventional bombing or distant nuclear detonation, the blast wave causes the most casualties via flying glass.

• The Myth: Do not tape windows with an “X”. Research and guidance from NPSA (National Protective Security Authority) and historical reviews confirm that taping does not prevent breakage and can create larger, more lethal shards of glass that act like guillotines.¹⁴
• The Reality: Windows will shatter.
• Mitigation:
  • Anti-Shatter Film: Installing professional blast-resistant film can hold the glass together in the frame.
  • Heavy Curtains/Blinds: Keep heavy curtains drawn to catch flying glass.
  • Stay Low: The “Duck and Cover” advice is scientifically valid. Being below the window line protects you from the thermal pulse (flash burns) and the subsequent glass spray.¹⁶

5.3 Perimeter Security and Civil Unrest

The risk of “Public Disorder” (Amber Risk) requires a different type of hardening—security against intrusion.

• The “Grey Man” House: The goal is to avoid attracting attention. When the grid fails, a house blazing with battery-powered lights or the noise of a generator attracts looters. Blackout curtains are essential not just for air raids, but for operational security (OPSEC) to hide your resources.¹⁷
• Fortification: Reinforce entry points. High-quality locks, security bars, and thorny vegetation (nature’s barbed wire) under ground-floor windows act as deterrents.¹⁸
• The Safe Room: The Inner Refuge doubles as a “Safe Room” or panic room during a break-in. It should have a solid door and a means of communication.

6. Sustenance Logistics: The Biological Layer

Strategic resilience fails if the biological machine (the human body) collapses. The 3-day supply recommended by some agencies is insufficient for the 14-day “Red Risk” scenarios. We must plan for 14 to 30 days.

6.1 Water Security: The Calculation of Survival

Water is the “heavy logistics” of survival. You cannot carry enough; you must store it.

• Hydration: 2 liters per person/day is the survival minimum.
• Hygiene/Cooking: 2.5 liters per person/day is required to prevent sanitation-related illness (washing hands, cleaning vessels).
• Total Requirement: 4.5 liters (1 gallon) per person per day.
• Family of 4 (14 Days): $4.5 \times 4 \times 14 = 252 \text{ Liters}$.

Storage Strategy:

• Containers: Do not use milk jugs (they degrade). Use dedicated 10L, 20L, or 25L HDPE food-grade Jerry Cans (e.g., Wavian or generic options from Screwfix/Wickes).¹⁹ They are stackable and opaque (preventing algae).
• Chemistry: Water stored in clean containers lasts 6-12 months. Rotate it. If doubtful, boil it. Bleach (unscented) can be used: 2 drops per liter, let stand for 30 minutes.²¹
• Diversification: Install a water butt for the garden.²² This water is non-potable but essential for the “Twin Bucket” system (washing/flushing) if filtered/treated.

6.2 The Twin-Bucket Sanitation System

If the grid fails, sewage pumps fail. Flushing the toilet becomes impossible or dangerous (backflow). The Twin-Bucket System is the industry standard for urban survival sanitation.²³

Table 2: Twin-Bucket Protocol

Component	Function	Protocol
Bucket 1 (Liquids)	Urine Only	Urine is generally sterile. Divert strictly to this bucket. Dispose of in garden/soil (diluted) to save volume in the solids bucket.
Bucket 2 (Solids)	Feces Only	Line with heavy-duty bin bags. After every use, cover waste with “carbon material” (sawdust, cat litter, shredded paper) to dry it out and stop smell.
Seat	Comfort	Use a snap-on toilet seat (Luggable Loo) or a pool noodle slit lengthwise on the rim.
Hygiene	Disease Control	Hand sanitizer or soap/water station must be next to the buckets. Gastrointestinal illness is a leading killer in disasters.

Source: Derived from PHLUSH and Preparedness Guidelines.²³

6.3 Nutritional Resilience: The 112,000 Calorie Larder

For a family of 4 over 14 days, the caloric math is brutal.

• Target: ~2,000 kcal/person/day (average).
• Total: $2,000 \times 4 \times 14 = 112,000 \text{ kcal}$.

The “Supermarket Prepper” List:

Avoid expensive “survival food” buckets. “Copy-canning” (buying extra of what you eat) is cheaper and better for morale.26

Table 3: The 14-Day Strategic Larder Checklist

Category	Key Items	Strategic Value	Warning
Carbohydrates	Rice (4kg+), Pasta, Oats, Instant Mash	High energy density, cheap bulk.	Requires water & fuel to cook.
Proteins	Canned Tuna, Corned Beef, Spam, Canned Beans/Lentils	Muscle maintenance, satiety.	Canned meats are ready-to-eat (RTE)—vital if fuel runs out.
Vegetables	Tinned Tomatoes, Peas, Sweetcorn, Fruit	Vitamins A/C, hydration (liquid in can).	Prevent scurvy and constipation.
Comfort	Chocolate, Biscuits, Alcohol, Tea/Coffee	Morale multiplier, trade goods.	Caffeine withdrawal is a debilitating headache; stock up.
Cooking	Oil, Salt, Pepper, Stock Cubes	Caloric density (oil), palatability.	Salt is essential for electrolyte balance.

Source: Synthesized from Prepper Shopping Lists.²⁸

The Fuel Gap:

You cannot cook rice without heat. If the gas/electric grid is down, you need a Camping Stove (Butane/Propane) with at least 14 days of gas canisters.31 If you lack this, your food store must be 100% Ready-to-Eat (tins).

7. The Information Layer: Signals Intelligence

In the “fog of war,” information is as vital as water. The enemy will weaponize information; the government will attempt to control it. You need an independent reception capability.

7.1 The Death of Analogue and the “Digital Darkness”

The UK is transitioning away from analogue radio, a strategic vulnerability.

• Radio 4 Long Wave (198 kHz): Historically the backbone of the Wartime Broadcasting Service (and the signal for nuclear submarines). It is scheduled for closure or power reduction by 2026 due to aging valves at Droitwich.³² However, in late 2025, it is still the primary fail-safe.
• Action: Ensure you have a radio capable of receiving LW (Long Wave), FM, and MW. A wind-up/solar radio is essential as batteries will become scarce.³⁴
• The Emergency Alert System: The government tests this system (Cell Broadcast) regularly (e.g., Sep 2025).³⁵ However, cell towers have limited battery backups. In a prolonged grid failure, the alerts will stop. Radio is the only long-term receiver.

7.2 The Prepper Comms Network (PMR446)

When cell networks fail, you need local comms for neighborhood security or convoy travel. PMR446 (Private Mobile Radio) is the UK’s license-free standard.

Table 4: UK Prepper & Emergency Channel Band Plan (PMR446)

Channel	Frequency (MHz)	CTCSS Tone	Designation	Use Case
1	446.00625	None (CSQ)	Calling Channel	General hailing, establishing contact.
3	446.03125	None	3-3-3 Rule	“Channel 3, every 3 hours, for 3 minutes.” Standard emergency protocol.
8	446.09375	Tone 8 (88.5 Hz)	DX / Distress	Often used for longer distance or distress calls in Europe.

Source: HFUnderground & Prepper Forums.³⁶

Action: Buy a set of PMR446 radios. Program these channels or stick a note on the back with this frequency map.

8. Mobility and Evacuation: The “Go-Bag”

While sheltering is the default, fire, flood, or radiation plumes may force displacement. You need a Grab Bag (Bug Out Bag) ready to go in 10 minutes.

8.1 The “Go-Bag” Inventory

• Documentation: Hard copies (waterproofed) of passports, insurance, deeds, and—crucially—a list of phone numbers. We rely on smartphones for memory; without them, we are digitally lobotomized.³⁴
• Cash: Electronic banking will fail.⁹ Carry 2 weeks’ worth of expenses in small denominations (£5/£10). £50 notes will be useless as no one will have change.⁴⁰
• Tools & The Law: UK knife law is draconian. Carrying a fixed-blade survival knife or a locking multitool in a public evacuation center is illegal without “good reason”.⁴¹
  • Legal Carry: A non-locking folding knife with a blade under 3 inches (e.g., classic Swiss Army Knife).
  • Grey Area: If evacuating to the woods, a fixed blade is justifiable. If evacuating to a school hall, it is a liability. Pack accordingly.

9. Community Resilience: The Social Grid

Survival is not a solo sport. The “Prepare” campaign emphasizes that Community Hubs are the nodes of resilience.¹

9.1 The Role of Community Hubs

In Peterborough and Cambridgeshire, specific locations have been designated as “Warm Spaces” or Hubs. These will likely become distribution points for water, food, and information during a crisis.

• Locations: Bretton Baptist Church, Havelock Community Hub, Family Voice Community Cafe.⁴³
• Action: Identify the hub nearest to you. Walk the route. In a blackout, this is where you will go to find out what is happening.

9.2 The “Quiet Captain”

Psychological resilience is key. Panic is contagious, but so is calm. The concept of the “Quiet Captain” ⁴⁵ suggests that in a household, one person must assume the role of maintaining routine, morale, and decision-making discipline. This reduces the cognitive load on others and prevents “freeze” responses.

10. Conclusion and Immediate Directives

The narrative that “They Are Telling Us To Prepare For War” is not hyperbole; it is a translation of the strategic reality. The mechanisms of the state are shifting to a war footing—intellectually, if not yet industrially. They have explicitly warned that the “front line is everywhere” and that “national resilience” depends on the citizen.

The window for preparation is open, but it is finite. The items listed in this report—water cans, analogue radios, non-perishable foods—are cheap and plentiful today. In a crisis, their value becomes infinite, and their availability zero.

Immediate Action Plan (Do This Now):

1. Water: Purchase ten 25L Jerry Cans. Fill them. Store them in the dark. (Target: 250L).
2. Food: Perform a “Copy-Can” run at the supermarket. Buy 14 days of extra rice, pasta, tinned meats, and vegetables. Don’t forget the manual can opener.
3. Sanitation: Buy two buckets, heavy-duty bags, and a bale of wood shavings/cat litter. Print the “Twin Bucket” instructions.
4. Comms: Acquire a Battery/Solar Radio with Long Wave (LW) capability. Test reception of Radio 4. Buy a set of PMR446 walkie-talkies.
5. Plan: Download the Household Emergency Plan template.⁴⁶ Fill it out. Print it. Discuss it with your family.

The state has signaled the danger. The responsibility to act now lies with you.